By MÁRIO MAESTRI
É a guitaranal sexethical to propose Russia as a nationthe imperialist, as well as defining it as an aggressor nation of Ukrainian national independence
The fate of the world of work and civilization in the coming decades may depend on the solution and developments of the military confrontation that Russia faces with US and European imperialism in Ukrainian territory. Noting their enormous confusion and weakness, a good part of the left that claims to be revolutionary Marxism is divided around this key issue, taking pro-NATO and pro-imperialist positions on the fringe of the eggs.
We are not referring to organizations aligned for decades with imperialist military operations, such as the IWL-FI, which, in the years 1979-89, celebrated the defeat of the Afghan Revolution and applauded the mujahideen of the counter-revolution; in 1989-1991 they hailed the explosion of the USSR, “German unification” and capitalist restoration in the nations of “real socialism”. Supported the destruction of Yugoslavia and the attack on Serbia in 1999; the aggressions against Iraq, Afghanistan, Cuba, Syria, Libya and so on. They sustained the 2013 coups in Egypt; 2014 in Ukraine; 2016 in Brazil. Always proposing to support popular revolutions never seen or heard before and after the successes.
for the vitólaugh at nato
Now, with other organizations that claim to be revolutionary Marxists, the IWL-FI demands the breaking of diplomatic relations and tougher economic retorts on Russia; the sending of heavy weapons and the establishment of “no-fly zones” about Ukraine. He is actively campaigning for the defeat of Russia and the victory of NATO and US imperialism. It repeats like a parrot the narrative and the fake news from NATO on successes in Ukraine.
As far as this organization is concerned, it is a collaboration with imperialism that has lasted for almost half a century, on burning questions of the class struggle. It cannot be attributed to “errors” or “deviations” in political analysis, within a revolutionary and anti-capitalist action. It is an indisputable expression of options for counter-revolutionary policies and orientations.
In an opposite direction, revolutionary Marxist organizations have resisted the pressure of the middle classes and big capital, advancing the principle of unconditional defense of the oppressed nation against the imperialist aggressor country, regardless of the nature of its government and the political direction of the oppressed nation. Policy widely defended by Lenin and Leon Trotsky, when referring to similar international successes.
This political-ideological trench has, however, in some cases, weakened, under the pressure exerted by Yankee imperialism and its succubi, with the monopoly of the narrative of ongoing successes. In the debate between organizations that claim to be Marxist, the main battering ram, which strikes the wall of this correct policy on the present facts, has been the definition of Russia as an imperialist and aggressor nation and Ukraine as an attacked nation.
battered nation
It is analytical violence to propose Russia as an imperialist nation, even more alongside the USA and China. As well as defining it as an aggressor nation of Ukrainian national independence. At present, Russia is definitely not an imperialist nation and, on the contrary, has struggled for years for its national independence and survival. Imperialism's media monopoly obscures the understanding of this reality. Marx remembered that if the “appearance and essence of things coincided, science would be unnecessary”. We therefore have to go beyond the common sense view.
Territorial conquest has marked imperialism since antiquity. In the Leninist and contemporary sense of the term, a nation is imperialist when its accumulation and reproduction of capital is dominated by the export of capital or industrial complexes, services, etc. monopolies, under the control of financial capital. The modern imperialist nation is unconcerned with territorial expansion. Switzerland is an imperialist nation and has never invaded another country. Japan, also imperialist, has not done so since its defeat in 1945.
In Latin America, the meaning of the action of modern imperialism is easily perceived, through the new activism of the great Chinese financial capital. In Brazil, in recent years, a substantial part of the distribution of energy, ores, oil, application companies, entertainment systems, etc. are in Chinese hands. Previously, only the US, Germany, France, Italy, Japan, etc. divided the systematic looting of that South American nation. The same can be said for Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, etc.
is not imperialist
In Latin America, we do not find automakers, mining companies, ports, airports, communication networks, banks, etc. controlled by big Russian capital. On the contrary, it was the land of Vladimir Putin that was invaded by the big German, French, Dutch, Swiss brands, etc. – the list is huge. Among them are BASF, BP, Coca-Cola HBC, Danone, Engie, Equinor, Nestlé, Renault, Shell.
The bulk of Russian income from abroad is due to exports of primary goods and merchandise. Capital exports have a low relative weight in relation to sales of oil, gas, coal, gold, chemical products, grains, chicken meat, etc. Russian Capital Investments Overseas (FDI) mainly support primary domestic activities – Lukoil, Gazprom, Mechel, Severstal Group Holdings, etc. An export structure of a semi-colonial country, albeit rich, with the exception of technological items inherited from the Soviet era – armament and aerospace industry, above all.
In 2021, Russia's GDP was lower than that of Germany, five times smaller than that of the USA and six times smaller than that of China. It is less than the GDP of California and Texas combined, Russia having twice the population of those two states. Russian GDP is practically the same as Brazil's. It is an analytical abuse to propose Russia as an imperialist nation, alongside China, the USA, Japan, Germany, etc., exporters of capital and technology companies.
Imperialist Brazil!
The relative fragility of the Russian economy does not prevent its conglomerates, public and private, from competing for the edges of international markets, supported by the State, especially in republics of the former USSR, Asia and Africa. Russia's tendency is to transform itself into an imperialist nation. And, against this, the USA and its vassal nations are mobilizing. However, today, it is definitely not yet.
Especially after 1967, during the military dictatorship (1964-1985), Brazil attempted to externalize monopoly national capital, supported by the State, in terms of the war industry, services, financing, etc., through Latin America, Africa and Asia. Hasty predictions defined Brazil as a semi-imperialist and even imperialist nation. Today, under the American heel, it is a country in the process of “globalized neo-colonial” regression, an exporter of energy, ores, meat, grains, and with its monopoly companies destroyed and internationalized and a low-technology industry.
It is an old program of European imperialist capital to transform eastern Eurasia into colonial territories. The project of great German capital to dominate the fertile lands and endless reserves of raw materials in Ukraine, Russia, etc. was embraced by Nazism, under the racial narrative of “living space”. It was not a National Socialist invention. The USSR lost 20 million inhabitants to face German barbarism and rid Europe of its rule.
Àat the gates of paradise
The USSR constituted a great wall against European colonial-imperialist expansion. In 1991, its destruction, followed by the Yeltin Era (1991-1999), materialized the possibility of achieving that program. Russia then became the backyard of the imperialist club USA, which never forgave Putin for the rapid relative capitalist recovery of the country. Supported mainly by the export of energy, that movement took Russia out of the situation of semi-colony of the big world capital, despite still being strongly determined by it.
Russia fought for its national autonomy and for a harmonious, even subordinate, integration in the capitalist international division of labor. What was denied him. At the head of the state, Putin even proposed the country's entry into NATO! Faced with the refusal of a partnership, even a subordinate one, the resistance of the State and the Russian nation closed its doors to extreme Western and Yankee neocolonialism. Making matters worse, further east, the Chinese Dragon was born, not only refusing to suffer the same semi-colonial plundering, but also disputing world imperialist hegemony. And the right to participate in the prey of the world.
The disorganization-looting program of the Russian and Chinese States is not a malevolent and random option of big international capital. He doesn't do it because he's mean. It is the only possibility to guarantee the resumption of a long expansion of capitalism, in its senile phase, under the full rule of the US dictatorship, in a world scenario of extreme violence and with the world of work reduced to capitalist semi-slavery. There is no room for peaceful coexistence between regressing US imperialism, expanding Chinese imperialism and autonomous nations. Today, a multi-polarized world is an illusion.
pantagru hungerélic
The current military campaign of big Western capital against Russia is a continuation of the offensive that contributed to the dissolution of the USSR in 1991. It was a dream of the Moscow bureaucrats who directed the end of socialism that capitalist Russia would sit at the right hand of the god-father of capital. The imperialist offensive was not just anti-socialist. It was, at the same time, a neo-colonial attack on Russia, as a nation to be subjugated, and an offensive, launched against it, as the “soft underbelly” of the Sino-Russian alliance.
Even with the dissolution of the USSR, harassment against Russia never stopped. Violating promises made in the 199s not to approach Russian borders, NATO hungrily absorbed the satellite countries of the former USSR and, soon, its former republics. In 1999, it was the Czech Republic and Hungary; in 2004, Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia; in 2009, Albania and Croatia; in 2017, Montenegro and in 2020, North Macedonia.
A ring of fire was established around the borders of Russia, which was no longer a socialist threat. It was, now, just a region to be dominated by big international capital. Where possible, the USA and NATO promoted separatism, trying to radicalize the territorial and population dismemberment known to Russia, when the USSR exploded – Chechnya, Georgia, etc. The former Soviet republics were besieged. Anti-Russian and pro-Western “color revolutions” were promoted.
Only after the end of the Yeltsin Era [1991-1999], were promoted, among others, “color revolutions” in Yugoslavia, Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Syria, Yemen and so on. The leap in quality took place in 2014, with the coup d'état in Ukraine and the enthronement of a western-philo-western puppet government, Russophobic, with a fascist bias. The Ukrainian population with Russian roots was persecuted, harassed and massacred by parties and movements that opposed the new order.
De back to the wall
The burlesque and bloody pantomime of the Euromaidan square was the hardest blow struck against Russia after 1991. With the new order, very soon, NATO troops would be established along the almost two thousand kilometers of border between the two countries. This would require an unbearable increase in Russia's defense spending and would make it indefensible in the case of border parking of tactical atomic missiles. In 1961, the US veto to placing those weapons in Cuba put the world on the verge of an atomic conflict.
The Russian response came in two motions. First. The recovery of Crimea, which had been annexed to Ukraine in 1954, by administrative act without major consequences, when the peninsula, Ukraine and Russia were part of the USSR. The return to Russia never saw a popular demonstration against it. Second. Russian support for the uprising of the People's Republics in the Donbas, in part of the administrative territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk provinces. However, unlike Crimea, the Russian government did not recognize the new republics, leaving open their return to Ukraine, under federative order and a special statute.
The Russian state also demanded that Kiev not join NATO. Without any commitment to their own nation, the Ukrainian puppet governments continued to attack the republics of Donbas and disrespect the Minsk agreements of September 2014 and February 2015. Making clear their submission to US imperialism, the Ukrainian Constitution introduced the NATO membership required. The low-intensity conflict situation in Donbas prevented Ukraine's formal membership of NATO, which was, however, advanced informally, in an accelerated way. One hundred NATO officers and advisers are believed to be trapped underground at the Azovstal steelworks in the city of Mariupol.
In defense of theautonomy
After 2014, the USA and NATO promoted a permanent threat to Russia, through an incessant Russo-phobic campaign, not infrequently under the most unlikely accusations, among them: the “attempted poisoning” and, later, the “conditions of imprisonment” of pro-Western Russian politician Alexei Navalny; the “cyber attacks” against satellites, political parties, US industries and energy distribution in Germany; “intervention” in US elections; the widespread “espionage” of Russian diplomats. Buff operas that received the permanent support of the American Democratic and Republican parties.
These and many other accusations, without any material proof, were accompanied by important sanctions against the State, the economy and the Russian population, by the USA and the European Union. Notable in this offensive was the campaign against the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and the requirement that NATO countries raise military budgets to 2% of their GDP. Which would launch Russia into the arms race that devastated the USSR's economy.
In fact, a military offensive against Russia was being organized. To this end, the first direct provocations were rehearsed: a greater number of military planes, troops and NATO maneuvers on Russian borders. On June 23, 2021, a step forward was taken. The English destroyer HMS Defender invaded Russia's territorial waters, along the Crimean coast, being expelled by that country's air and naval defense. The economic, political, public opinion intoxication offensive was sustained, only to a greater or lesser extent, by practically all European governments and political parties.
unopposed
In early 2021, the Italian Democratic Party, formerly the Communist Party, entered the government proposing itself as radically Atlanticist — pro-Yankee. In many cases, the European nationalist and xenophobic right is the least averse to Russophobia. Anti-globalization, it defends, openly or covertly, leaving the European Union, the end of NATO, national reindustrialization. The Caesarist, anti-socialist, pro-capitalist order of the current Russian government is equally attractive to the European right and some politicians in government, as in Hungary. Many of the nationalist right-wing parties enjoy the support of the traditional working class, which abandoned the globalist and social-liberal left parties decades ago.
For years, Russia has prepared, as best it could, for an attack it knew was inevitable. He sold his US debt securities, gave himself a national internet network, formed billionaire reserves in gold, modernized the military forces. Decreased the external debt. I built an alternative system to SWIFT, still small in scope. Greater proximity to China guaranteed it an economic rear and allowed it to move its military troops from the eastern borders to the western ones.
At the end of 2021, seeing the advance of NATO's de facto alliance with Ukraine, increasingly with its back against the wall, the Russian government tried to open negotiations with the United States, NATO's decision-making center. Requiring only the guarantees promised to the country in 1991, with emphasis on Ukrainian neutrality and the withdrawal of NATO away from its borders.
All the USA Wanted
It was the confrontation pursued by the mostly democratic US administration, which, in 2016, had planned to wage it, against Russia, also indirectly, in association with NATO, in Syria. Project interrupted by the victory of Donald Trump, which allowed the consolidation of the Syrian regime. By rejecting all of Russia's essential demands, the US left Russia with no choice but to invade Ukraine, the central axis of the discussion and the heart of the growing threat.
The United States has achieved, so far, all the objectives sought with the current conflict. With emphasis on the relative rupture of the European Union's diplomatic and economic relations with Russia, especially with regard to Germany. The war made it possible to put an end, at least temporarily, to the operation of the Russian-German gas pipeline Nord Stream 2, which had already been completed, with plans to replace, as far as possible, Russian gas with more expensive US gas.
The demonization of Putin and Russia advanced NATO's prestige among the shamefully manipulated European population and US hegemony over it and the European Union. The European arms frenzy, with emphasis on Germany, will guarantee – and is already guaranteeing – excellent orders for the Yankee arms industry and intends to launch Russia into a war race. Expenses with arms sent to Ukraine, financed by the European Union and the USA, have been fabulous.
Até the ulast ally
The great success of US imperialism is that the conflict is taking place in Europe, essentially being supported by the Old World. The United States seeks to prolong the current military confrontation to the end of European resilience. Equally important is the formatting of European public opinion in the most rampant Russo-phobia, which has Putin as the ogre of the moment, after Milosevich, Fidel Castro, Bin Laden, Saddan Hussain, Khomeini, Gaddafi, Bashar al-Assad, Chaves, Maduro. With a success perhaps never achieved, even in the worst times of the so-called Cold War.
The strategic objective of the USA-NATO is to maintain the frontal war for months and, if possible, a situation of intermittent confrontations, for years, like what happened in Donbas, from 2014 to 2022, transforming Ukraine into Russian Vietnam. They intend to bleed Russia to final exhaustion, forcing its impoverishment, internal convulsions, the fall of the regime, the disorganization of the State. The US-NATO consumer dream is the emergence of a Russian Volodymyr Zelensky, with the pro-imperialist plasticity of Yeltsin.
To complete such an operation, US-NATO is willing to fight to the last Ukrainian, without legally becoming involved in the conflict. Actor Volodymyr Zelensky, a man of immense wealth and hand-picked puppet to govern Ukraine as Captain-General of the Lusitanian grantees, with his political and economic future guaranteed forever, is olympicly unconcerned with the fate of the country and its population. When necessary, imperialism will pull another media-friendly and obedient politician out of the hat.
Russia Delenda is
There is no possible scenario that suggests a Russian defeat, even with huge Western military investments. As proposed, US-NATO seeks above all the erosion of Russia's military forces and economy, even at the cost of widespread and unnecessary destruction of parts of Ukraine. As a defense strategy, the Ukrainian army and national-fascist troops entered the cities and prevented the evacuation of their populations, used as human shields. Which increases the complexity of combat for Russian troops.
In the absence of military victories, they produce fake news, about alleged monstrous Russian crimes. Macabre narratives that follow each other, without any concern for their credibility, ensured by the total dominance of the great European and world press. The best publicity pieces were the “Kiev ghost pilot”, with dozens of Russian planes shot down, produced through virtual animation. The thirteen Ukrainian sailors from Cobra Island in the Black Sea who would have preferred death to surrendering to a Russian warship. After being decorated post-mortem, they turned up very much alive and well treated, like prisoners, all angry at being abandoned, alone, on the island by their Ukrainian superiors.
Massacres of civilians by aviation, ballistic missiles and Russian troops followed and continue, with enormous success among a population deprived of impartial information: the one in the Mariupol Theater, the one in the city of Bucha, the one in Kramatorsk, the one in Jarkov, etc. The major international media do not even mention the countless material evidence that contradicts these narratives. Especially in the alternative media, of little reach, voices are raised against the enormous media farce. In war, lies are like soil – the Lusitanians used to say.
What can we expect from the war
The supply of modern personal anti-aircraft and anti-armor weapons to Ukraine caused losses in means of transport, tanks, helicopters and planes flying at low altitude, taking away an initial advantage for the Russian troops. Some missiles have been intercepted, registering that the armament delivered to Ukraine has been expanded in quantity and quality – the S-300, for example. However, everything indicates that Russia intends to conclude the conflict, as soon as possible, with the transfer already carried out, to the south of the troops that surrounded Kiev. Above all, they kept the Ukrainian armed forces immobilized, waiting for an attack on the Ukrainian capital, which was never in Moscow's plans. The military objective seems to have always been New Russia, in the south and southeast of the country – a region with a strong Russian-speaking and ethnic population.
The new battle that has already begun will take place on an empty field, in a huge combat area. It will confront the approximately 40 Ukrainian troops, armed and trained by NATO, who mainly surrounded the Donbas. In it, the quality of artillery, mechanized troops, infantry, aviation, navy and coordination between these weapons will prevail. Despite NATO's willingness to provide the most advanced war material, such as armored vehicles, even if the casualties in the Russian armed forces are high, its victory is assured. This war plan was possibly designed in case of the Ukrainian government's refusal to negotiate, beyond the current scenarios.
In case the Ukrainian government does not open real negotiations, the possibility of partitioning Ukraine is strong, between the north, on the one hand, and the south-southeast, on the other. In the impossibility of Russia imposing de facto neutrality on Ukraine, it is a possibility the option to maintain control of the Ukrainian coastline of the Black Sea, which would unite Russia, Crimea, by land, through the republics of Donbas and the city of Mariupol . Due to this, the violence of the fighting in this city, previously fortified under the guidance of NATO specialists. At best, Odessa, a city founded by the Russians and strongly Russian-speaking, would be Ukraine's only outlet to the sea.
the new russia
The military forces of the Donbas republics are rapidly advancing territorial control over their respective provinces – oblasts. In a way, the occupation of the territories of New Russia and the republics of Donetsk and Lugansk would favor a distancing of NATO from the historical borders of Russia. And they also strengthened a possible negotiation in favor of a neutral and federalized Ukraine. After heavy losses, especially in men, it will be difficult for the Russian government to abandon the Russian-speaking populations of Ukraine to an uncertain fate. The partition of Ukraine will, if it occurs, have consequences that are difficult to predict.
The harsh and relentless economic sanctions have yet to reveal the extent of the damage they could do to Russia's economy. Europe's necessary dependence on Russian energy, at least for a short to medium period of time, has proved to be greater than expected. Western Europe continues to finance the Ukrainian campaign, without interrupting the payment of gas and oil that arrives from the demonized Russia.
The militarist policy, defended and advanced by the current European governments, will intensify the social crisis in the Old Continent, which is already happening, giving rise to new political scenarios. India and China's refusal, above all, to adhere to Russia's isolation campaign, already makes it difficult to attempt to impose a siege like the one suffered by Cuba, North Korea, Iran. Almost a third of the world's population lives in those two continental countries. Western manipulation capacity in Black Africa and Asia has sharply receded in recent years. Russia will come out of the conflict, for many nations, as an example of strength and resistance in the face of significantly richer and more powerful states.
The Third World War
It has been debated whether the current conflict is just the beginning or could result in World War III. A debate that seems unfounded to us. The II World War. From 1939 to 1945, it was a general conflict with the objective of conquering land and sea areas, which confronted land, sea and air armies. Just like in Ukraine. But today, this type of military clash is unfeasible, directly, between nations with atomic weapons. Any country at a strategic disadvantage, in a general confrontation, will use its atomic power, even if it is tactical, before succumbing. Russia has a greater number of tactical – defensive – atomic weapons and has already stated that it intends to use them if necessary.
A kind of World War III, from 1947 to 1991, between the USSR and the USA, and their respective allies, was fought through an incessant succession of coups d'état and localized and controlled, and never general, military conflicts – the Korean War; coups in Indonesia, Brazil, Chile; African wars of national liberation; war in Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia; war in El Salvador, Nicaragua, Afghanistan, etc. The economic weakening of the enemy bloc was sought, which was achieved with the dissolution of the USSR.
This form of conflict between Russia and the West has been in full development for years, forming what we could propose as World War IV, with battles located in Chechnya, Iraq, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Georgia, Syria, Iran , in Libya, etc. The struggle for the imposition of US hegemony requires the submission of Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, above all.
The military confrontation in Ukraine, against Russia, was a leap in quality in this clash. Perhaps, possibly, due to the lack of conditions for imperialism to advance the same initiative against China, in which it would not have the support of Western Europe and Japan. One of the US possibilities to launch China into a conflict, without a frontal and total confrontation, is the incentive to independence or the establishment of Yankee troops in Taiwan. In a sense, what was done in Ukraine. The Chinese government has declared that such a reality would lead to intervention in Formosa. The danger of a generalized conflict is always real, even if it is not sought or desired by either bloc.
where are you going to China?
The US threatens China with retorts if it maintains privileged relations with Russia, weakening economic sanctions policies. Depending on the US market for the flow of its exports, Beijing has remained withdrawn, in apparent equidistance. It seeks to disturb the already troubled waters of its relationship with the United States to a minimum. Some Western analysts dream of Washington and Beijing getting closer, isolating Moscow and facilitating its defeat. However, the US continues to define China as its strategic enemy, which it knows has military superiority or parity in relation to its priority enemy, only in alliance with Russia. It is proposed that a defeat of Russia and the fall of the current regime, with the advent of a new Zelensky-Yeltsin, would lead to an inevitable estrangement from China. Another reason for Beijing to worry, even discreetly, about the success of its Russian ally.
US imperialism, in relative decay, has a narrow window of time to disorganize China, imperialism on the rise. The US offensive is presented in justification language as containment from Russia and China, as if the pressure comes from the harassed nations. A general Russian defeat would advance the attack against China and, in case of victory over the eastern country, would inaugurate the “new American century”, with terrible consequences for the world of work, for the population in general, for the very fate of humanity. . The defeat of the United States in this general operation will give rise, in a longer period of time, to the emergence of the new Chinese imperialist hegemony over the world.
The coming times will be one of tension and violence never known by humanity, since they are lived under the sign of the confrontation of nations with nuclear weapons. we find ourselves, guaranteeing a future for humanity itself.
PS Thank you for reading the Italian linguist Florence Carboni.
*Mario Maestri is a historian. Author, among other books, of Awakening the Dragon: Birth and Consolidation of Chinese Imperialism (1949-2021).
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