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By ANTÔNIO DAVID*

What would have been the result if the Genial/Quaest survey had used the sample that Datafolha used just two months earlier

The Genial/Quaest national survey, carried out between the 2nd and 6th of May, has just been released. The headlines of some press outlets highlight the results: “Genial/Quaest: 55% think Lula doesn’t deserve another chance in 2026” (The Globe), “For 55%, Lula does not deserve another chance in 2026, says Genial/Quaest” (Veja), “Quaest: Lula scores 46% for the 2026 election against Tarcísio’s 40%” (Folha de S. Paul). A Folha de S. Paul The subtitle was also published: “Survey also showed that 55% think that PT member no longer deserves a chance as president”.

A Folha de S. Paul could have reported in the same report that the Datafolha institute carried out a national opinion survey on the 19th and 20th of March this year, and that its sample differed considerably from the Genial/Quaest survey sample in a decisive area: income.

Monthly family incomeDatafolha (March 2024)Genial/Quaest (May 2024)
Up to 2 minimum wages57%30%
2 to 5 minimum wages31%44%
More than 5 minimum wages8%26%
Refuses or does not know how to inform3%-

It is worth warning: the data refers to family income, not individual income.

According to the Genial/Quaest survey, in the income range up to two minimum wages, 53% believe that Brazil is “in the right direction” and 35% believe that Brazil is “in the wrong direction” (12% say they do not know or did not answer ), In the immediately higher income range, between 2 and 5 minimum wages, the assessment is reversed: 52% believe that Brazil is “in the wrong direction”, while 38% declare that Brazil is “in the right direction” (the percentage of those who don't know or didn't answer is 9%).

This same assessment is amplified in the income range above five minimum wages: here, those who responded that Brazil is going “in the wrong direction” total 59%, while 31% consider that Brazil is going “in the right direction” (10% don't know or didn't answer).

What would have been the result for this and other questions if the Genial/Quaest survey had used the sample that Datafolha used just two months earlier, in March?

*Antonio David He has a PhD in Philosophy from USP and is currently pursuing a PhD in Social History at the same institution..


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