By PAULO NOGUEIRA BATISTA JR.*
The United States no longer has the power it once had. Threats and unilateral measures, distributed without criteria and without apparent strategy, are signs of weakness.
1.
I always say that Brazil doesn't fit in anyone's backyard. I even published a book with this title. Not everyone agrees, however.
US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth recently stated, referring to Central and South America, that China's influence in these regions has grown too much and that Donald Trump "is taking back our backyard" ("we are taking our back yard back").
An insult. Pete Hegseth, a former television host (!), is one of the many arrogant and ignorant troglodytes who make up Donald Trump's government, all of them made in the image and likeness of their boss. I have never seen such a confused and incompetent government in the United States.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi responded well, saying: “What the Latin American people want is to build their own home, not to be anyone’s backyard. What they seek is independence, not doctrines of domination.” So far, as far as I know, there has been no statement from the Itamaraty…
What Donald Trump's government is trying to do is resurrect old-fashioned imperialism, based on sanctions, blackmail and threats, including military intervention. It has fired the machine gun, even hitting traditional allies (or satellites) of the United States.
Hypocrisy has gone out the window. It has been a long time since we saw anything like it. Donald Trump does not believe in the value of hypocrisy and this tends to weaken him internationally. The Empire shows its true nature, without disguises, without protective veils.
Note, reader, that old-fashioned imperialism was sometimes more subtle. Theodore Roosevelt, who was president of the United States from 1901 to 1909 and pursued a nationalist and aggressive foreign policy, had as his motto: “Speak softly and carry a big stick” (“Speak softly and carry a big stick”). As for Donald Trump “speaks loudly and carries a doubtful stick” (“speaks loudly and carries a dubious club”).
2.
The United States no longer has the power it once had. Threats and unilateral measures, distributed without criteria and without any apparent strategy, are signs of weakness. More than that: Donald Trump's government as a whole is an acute symptom of the United States' decline. What has it done so far, instead of Make America Great Again (MAGA), will likely accelerate the country's decline.
The economy will suffer. The volatility and arbitrariness of Trump's economic policies are likely to undermine activity and employment levels and increase inflation. Business and household confidence has declined significantly, creating the risk of a recession in the United States.
On the other hand, the United States is isolating itself from a geopolitical point of view. What sense does it make, for example, to attack and humiliate Canadians and Europeans? Canada, England and the European Union have always been loyal followers. Now they are being treated with contempt. If the main objective is to contain China, wouldn't it be smarter to count on the cooperation of these countries?
The Donald Trump administration reminded me of a prediction, of uncertain authorship: “The United States will be the first country to go from barbarism to decadence, without knowing civilization.”
Donald Trump is the most explicit face of a violent country, predominantly crude and very problematic for itself and for the world. The only advantage for us of its new president, I repeat, is that he makes completely clear and more vulnerable a project of domination that has already been carried out in a more subtle and effective way in other times. soft power of the United States is being destroyed like never before.
Nothing to regret. The weakening of the US is welcome, for obvious reasons.
3.
What will happen to Brazil, this country that, due to its population, territorial and economic dimensions, does not fit in anyone's backyard? How will it behave?
Here we have a problem. Brazilians are not always up to Brazil's standards. A large part of the Brazilian elite, including several members of Lula's government, fit in anyone's backyard.
One example: Armínio Fraga, former president of the Central Bank. A few days ago, on the same occasion that he proposed freezing the minimum wage for six years in real terms, he said he was a little worried about the new government of the USA, a country that has always been a kind of “guiding star” for the rest of the planet…
Another episode: a Brazilian diplomat, who is part of the team trying to negotiate with Donald Trump's government, recalled that we have a trade deficit with the United States, concluding that Brazil should be an example and not a target of United States policy.
As Leonel Brizola said, “the Brazilian elite is trash”.
Faced with the challenge posed by Donald Trump, the Brazilian government has decided to keep a low profile, trying to play dead. Understandable. The US is still powerful, the new American president is unpredictable and, more seriously, he is showing signs of mental imbalance. The import tariffs imposed on us were significant, but they are small when compared to those being applied to many other countries. Brazil is not one of Donald Trump's main targets.
For now. As one of the world's giants, Brazil can hardly go unnoticed. And excessive timidity can be seen as weakness and lead to new and greater aggressions and unilateral measures on the part of the bully who presides over the United States.
Beware! We have the 2026 elections coming up and it seems likely that Donald Trump will decide to interfere to bring back to power the “patriots” aligned with him.
*Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr. is an economist. He was vice-president of the New Development Bank, established by the BRICS. Author, among other books, of Shrapnel (countercurrent) [https://amzn.to/3ZulvOz]
Extended version of article published in the journal Capital letter, on April 18, 2025.
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