By ANDREW KORYBKO*
Joe Biden will not be removed for corruption in Ukraine, but new allegations could still have an impact.
Former Ukrainian deputy Andrey Derkach released a series of bombshell statements about Joe Biden's corrupt dealings in Ukraine in a recent interview with Italian-American journalist Simona Mangiante. The conclusions can be read here, but they basically boil down to bribery and money laundering, among other crimes. While they could boost Republicans' impeachment efforts in the House, where the opposition has a slim majority, the lack of a two-thirds majority in the Senate means he will not be removed from office.
Even so, these new allegations could still have a major impact on events, one that could be far more significant than his perfunctory impeachment by the House. Proceedings at this level have become politicized, as evidenced by the Democrats' witch hunt against Donald Trump, which is not to say that the Republicans are doing something like this against Joe Biden, but just to emphasize that impeachment by the House has no tangible meaning. If anything, it will strengthen both parties' efforts to get out the vote in November.
The real importance of these latest allegations lies in the broader context of the Ukrainian conflict, which started to decrease at the end of last year after the failure of the Kiev counteroffensive and the consequent decrease in Western aid. Republicans have already agreed that any further such deal depends on robust border security reforms, but now they may also include the additional condition of a comprehensive joint investigation with Ukraine into Andrey Derkach's bombshell revelations about Joe Biden.
If the opposition makes this proposal, there is no way the Democrats can agree, which would make the possibility of any compromise on this issue unfeasible until next year, after the November elections, which could shake the momentum in Congress and, potentially, also lead to to the impeachment of Joe Biden. Furthermore, Volodymyr Zelensky's regime cannot be counted on to assist any joint theoretical investigation in good faith, as important figures there are also implicated in this corruption according to Andrey Derkach's revelations.
This specific point adds a curious twist to this scandal, as it suggests that they may also be able to blackmail the Joe Biden administration, which provides a new layer of understanding as to why the sitting president and his team are so enthusiastic about perpetuating the war. by NATO proxy against Russia through Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky knows that any outcome short of the maximalist victory he fantasizes about would end his political career, so he has self-interested reasons for wanting to turn this into a so-called “eternal war.”
The objective national interests of the United States are not served by further depleting its stockpiles and thereby reducing its ability to respond flexibly to external crises as they arise, or as they may even be provoked by the United States. or their partners, so it has become popular to talk about freezing the conflict. A “land for peace” armistice proposal similar to the Korean one from former NATO Supreme Commander Admiral James Stavridis last year could be a starting point, more only if the West agrees to Russia's requests for security guarantees in Ukraine.
However, they are reluctant to do so, which explains why there has been no progress on this issue. One of the reasons behind US recalcitrance may not only be concerns about “losing face” by reaching a pragmatic series of mutual compromises with Russia, but also because Volodymyr Zelensky is blackmailing the Joe Biden administration by saying he will reveal all if they dare to follow this policy. Given your previous status “divine” in Western media, any corroboration of Andrey Derkach’s claims can be widely considered by Westerners.
They know that Volodymyr Zelensky is not an alleged “Russian agent” and have convinced themselves that he is a “democratic freedom fighter”, therefore it would be very damaging to the reputation of democratic operators if he engaged in “limited disclosure” by sharing some relevant information. Of course, he wouldn't implicate himself or his most loyal allies, but he could take down some politically less trustworthy officials in that case (perhaps as part of a purge) and at the same time possibly jeopardize the re-election of Joe Biden and turn the Senate.
Republican control of the White House and Congress, along with what many consider to be a right-wing Supreme Court, could lead to Democrats' worst nightmare, which is their opponents reversing most of Joe Biden's policies. Meanwhile, Volodymyr Zelensky's worst nightmare is that Joe Biden will bow to popular sentiment among Americans to reduce his country's participation in this proxy war and coerce it into resuming peace negotiations with Russia, so that each can thus keep the other under control through this mutual blackmail.
The legitimacy of both the Joe Biden administration and Volodymyr Zelensky's regime therefore depends on each of them remaining silent about their corruption scheme, but one or the other could, at least in theory, reveal some details about it if they become suspicious. or want to get rid of each other. For example, the Joe Biden administration could leak some information about Volodymyr Zelensky's corruption to the pro-Democratic media in order to pressure him to resume peace talks or pave the way for a “national unity government".
This proposal was put forward by a member of the influential think tank Atlantic Council last month in an article for the portal Politico and can be credibly interpreted as a sign that the Joe Biden administration is starting to tire of Volodymyr Zelensky. As for the Ukrainian leader, it has already been explained that he may be the first to leak certain details about this scheme if he feels that the Democrats' support for this proxy war is wavering, which could be one of his "nuclear options" in this case, along with a large false flag.
Returning to Andrey Derkach's latest allegations of corruption, their impact in terms of the Ukrainian conflict is much more important than the possibility of them helping Republicans' efforts to remove Joe Biden in the House, as they cannot remove him due to lack of support in the Senate. Republicans could condition support for more Ukrainian aid on a joint investigation into these allegations and/or either the Joe Biden administration or Volodymyr Zelensky's regime could leak evidence if the other fails to meet its obligations.
*Andrew Korybko holds a master's degree in International Relations from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Book author Hybrid Wars: From Color Revolutions to Coups (popular expression). [https://amzn.to/46lAD1d]
Translation: Fernando Lima das Neves
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